If you have been holding off on a mortgage decision because you are waiting for rates to fall, you are in very good company. It is the most common question we are hearing at the moment. The honest answer is that the market has become genuinely harder to read this year, and “wait and see” now carries more risk than it did a few months ago.
Here is a clear-eyed look at where things stand and, more importantly, how to think about the decision for your own situation.
Where rates actually stand right now
The Bank of England held the base rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026. What matters more than the headline is the tone behind it: the decision was a 6-3 vote, with three committee members preferring a rise to 4%, citing energy and food prices and the risk of inflation becoming stickier.
On the products themselves, the best mainstream two and five-year fixed rates are broadly in the 4.3 to 4.6% range depending on loan-to-value, and nothing has priced below 4% since February.
Market-wide averages sit higher, at around 5.6% for a two-year fix and 5.65% for a five-year, because those averages include every deal across every LTV band. The rate you would actually be offered depends heavily on your deposit or equity, your income and your credit profile.
The outlook has flipped, and that is the real story
Earlier in the year the expectation was a steady glide downwards, with some speculation that fixed rates might dip close to 3%.
That has changed.
The recent fall in rates has started to reverse, with many lenders nudging fixed rates back up as wholesale funding and swap costs rise, driven in part by the conflict in the Middle East and its effect on energy prices.
The key takeaway is this: fixed-rate pricing can move quickly when wholesale markets shift, even if the Bank of England leaves the base rate unchanged. Rates no longer only move on Bank of England decisions. That makes waiting a less certain strategy than it looked over the summer.
Why timing the market is the wrong question
Nobody can reliably predict the exact path of mortgage rates, and anyone who tells you otherwise should be treated with caution. Trying to call the precise bottom usually means sitting on an expensive standard variable rate while you wait, which almost always costs more than simply securing a suitable deal.
The better question is not whether rates have bottomed out, but how much certainty you need and what suits your circumstances.
Fixing versus staying variable
A fixed rate buys you one thing above all: certainty. Your payments are locked, which makes budgeting straightforward and protects you if rates climb further.
A tracker or variable deal gives you the upside if rates fall, and usually no early repayment charges, but it exposes you to increases.
That trade was more tempting when the market expected cuts. With the balance of risk now tilted towards rates holding or rising, the strategy of sitting on a tracker and waiting for cuts looks less attractive than it did a few months ago, though it can still suit borrowers who want flexibility or expect to move or repay soon.
Two years or five?
This is where personal circumstances really matter.
- A two-year fix keeps your commitment short and lets you re-fix sooner. It suits you if you believe rates will be lower in a couple of years, or if your situation may change.
- A five-year fix locks in today’s pricing for longer and shields you if rates rise, but ties you in if they fall, and typically carries early repayment charges if you need to exit early.
Interestingly, longer fixes are sometimes priced lower than shorter ones, so it is always worth comparing the actual numbers for your loan size rather than assuming a two-year deal is cheaper.
If your deal ends within six months, act now
This is the one piece of near-universal guidance.
If your fixed rate is due to end in the next six months, review your options now rather than waiting.
Most lenders let you secure a rate three to six months ahead, and you can usually switch to a better deal if one appears before completion. You lose nothing by locking something in early, and you protect yourself against further rises.
The bottom line
Fixing now is rarely about calling the market perfectly. It is about matching the right product to your circumstances, your appetite for risk and your plans for the property.
That is also where whole-of-market advice earns its keep, particularly if your situation sits outside the vanilla box, for example if you are self-employed, an expat, buying with family through a joint borrower sole proprietor arrangement, have some adverse credit, or are stretching affordability.
The best deal on a comparison table is not always one you can actually get, and it is rarely the one that fits a more complex case.
If you would like us to look at your numbers and set out the realistic options, we are always happy to have that conversation.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute personal financial advice. Any mortgage recommendation should be based on your individual circumstances. Rates and figures are correct as at September 2026 and can change.
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